Great Expectations: Mining State Level Data for Baseline Comparisons to Augment Randomized Experimental Designs
We first asked if there have been significant changes in student achievement as measured by the percentage of students scoring proficient or advanced on the California Standards Tests (CST) since the exams were introduced in 2003. Our hypothesis is that, using this measure, there have been gains in achievement due to increased experience with the test (on the part of both teachers and students) along with the various influences of NCLB, state-level mandates (for example California Assembly Bill 466) and various programs specific to individual districts and schools.
Our second question considered indices of achievement growth beyond those legislatively mandated (percentage of proficient or advanced students). Our hypothesis is that the categorical nature of the of the CST (relative to the legislative mandates) and threshold criteria of success at the level of the school (at least as it pertains to Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP)) permits multiple and distinct patterns of achievement gains that can be used to quantify the effects of PD in a richer context than AYP.
